After a strong outcome in January, the European Commission ESI for both the EU and the subset of the Euro-zone fell back in the February dated report and remains illusively short of its all-time average level. Industry confidence was broadly unchanged from the previous month, with the downturn concentrated in the services sector.
The European Commission draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for five sectors of the economy and then uses these to calculate up its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) which is converted to an index based on the long-run average. As well as the two sectors mentioned above, construction also saw an easing of sentiment but this was balanced by an improvement for the retail trade; consumer confidence was, like industry, unchanged.
There are three questions which are weighted to calculate industry confidence; it was marginally lower in the February* report because a deterioration in the assessment of stocks of finished products was all-but offset by an improvement in current order books, while production expectations for the next 3 months were unchanged. The survey includes two other questions which are not included in the calculation and respondents viewed both output over the previous 3 months and export order books more favourably in this survey.
Amongst the largest EU economies, the ESI fell significantly in France (-2.8 points) and Poland (-1.9) and, to a lesser extent in Italy (-0.6); there was a marginal fall in Germany and the Netherlands (both -0.2) and it was unchanged in Spain.
As noted above, the ESI is calculated against the long-run average, so we can look at the position of the individual countries against their own historical situation – this is the best way to compare between countries. Overall, 10 Member States have an ESI above 100 in this survey – these were Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Latvia (new this month), Lithuania, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain; in addition, Sweden was exactly on the 100.0 mark (its long-run average). There were 5 countries – Bulgaria, Czechia, France, Ireland and Slovenia – who dipped below the threshold having been above it in January*. The EU candidate countries also participate in this survey; only Albania and Turkiye are above the threshold, with Montenegro exactly on the 100.0 point.
* Note that although dated February 2026, the data collection period ran from 1st to 19th of that month, so the trends really refer to January; therefore, the past 3-months cover November 2025 to January 2026 and the coming period runs from February to April.
You can download the EC report and statistical annex from their website at https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/business-and-consumer-surveys/download-business-and-consumer-survey-data/press-releases_en (open the 2026 box) or you can request it from MTA.