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Economic Data This Week

UK GDP, 2nd Quarter 2014:  The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released an update to its estimate for the UK economy that left the growth rate of +0.8% compared to the previous quarter unchanged, but edged up the annualised rate to +3.2% (from +3.1% in the preliminary estimate).

Almost all of this growth comes from the service sector - not surprising given that it accounts for more than ¾ of the economy - which grew by +1.0% quarter-on-quarter;  the production sector also grew, in this case by +0.3%, although most of this growth came from an increase in energy output, with manufacturing only seeing growth of +0.2% (as we reported last week).

You can download the ONS Statistical Bulletin and the complete data set via their web-site at www.ons.gov.uk or get it on request from MTA.

European GDP, 2nd Quarter 2014:  The initial estimates of GDP from Eurostat show no change compared to the 1st quarter of the year for the euro-zone and an increase of +0.2% for the EU28 as a whole.  Compared to a year ago, the euro-zone economy has grown by +0.7%, with the EU28 as a whole expanding by +1.2%.

Looking at the individual countries, Cyprus, Italy and Romania are in recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of non-positive growth), but all the headlines have been around Germany, where GDP fell by -0.2% in the 2nd quarter, and France which has had two consecutive quarters of a flat economy.  For Germany, economic growth had been quite strong at +0.7% in the 1st quarter, with an annualised rate of +2.2%;  the weak 2nd quarter has reduced the annualised growth rate to +1.3%.  Growth in France has been anaemic for some time, varying between small positive and small negative numbers and the cumulative annual rate to the middle of this year is only +0.1%.

You can get the Eurostat News Release from their web-site at http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/ or on request from MTA.

European Industrial Production, June 2014:  Eurostat has also released figures on industrial production this week;  it shows that total output in the euro-zone fell by -0.3% compared to May and was at the same level as a year earlier - for the EU28 as a whole, output was -0.1% lower than in May, but +0.7% higher than in June 2013.

Within the total, output of capital goods in the euro-zone in June 2014 was the same as the previous month and -0.1% lower than a year earlier;  for the EU28 as a whole, capital goods output increased by +0.2% compared to May and was +0.8% higher than a year ago.

Using the 12-month comparison, among the Member States for whom the data is available, total industrial production increased in 15 and fell in 8;  the fastest growth was in Hungary (+11.3%) and Romania (+9.9%), with the largest falls in Greece (-6.9%) and Malta (-3.8%).

You can get the Eurostat News Release from their web-site at http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/ or on request from MTA.

USMTO and US CTMR, June 2014:  The US Manufacturing Technology Orders (USMTO) programme tracks orders received in the US market, irrespective of origin;  in the 1st half of the year, these are running at -2.7% lower than the same period last year (January to June 2013).  The regional analysis is not complete, but it appears that only the North-Central-East region is growing, 3 regions are flat and there is a significant fall in the North-east and North-Central-West regions.

The US Cutting Tool Market Report (CTMR) tracks sales of cutting tools in the US and covers about 80% of the market.  Sales in June were +7.3% higher than in the previous month and +9.9% higher than a year earlier;  it was the strongest month of the year.  There is no regional breakdown of this series.

You can download the News Releases on these two reports from the AMT web-site at www.amtonline.org or request them from MTA (we have a small mailing list for these surveys and can send them to you each month as they are released.