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Economic News

European Industrial Production, September 2021:  Following on from the UK manufacturing output data that we reported last week, Eurostat has published the equivalent data for Europe.  It is worth noting, however, that the top level figures are for industrial production which is dominated by manufacturing but also includes energy production;  also, the Eurostat data in their “euro-indicators” publication is only monthly.

UK Foreign Trade, 3rd Quarter 2021:  Alongside all the economic data published last week by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) was the information about foreign trade (exports/imports).

UK GDP, September and 3rd Quarter 2021:  The main data this month is the more detailed quarterly GDP figures which show the UK economy grew by +1.3% compared to the 2nd period of the year.  This was less than expected by most commentators (and less than assumed in our recent forecasts) and makes the annualized growth rate +6.6% and still leaves the economy -2.1% smaller than it was before the pandemic in Q4-2019.

UK Manufacturing Output, 3rd Quarter 2021:  The latest manufacturing output data from Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicates a marginal fall compared to August but, more importantly, output in the 3rd quarter (July to September) was -0.2% lower than in the 2nd period of the year but +4.5% higher than a year earlier.  Total manufacturing output was 97.8% of the pre-pandemic level which, on the quarterly measure, is taken to be the 4th quarter of 2019.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Report:  Members will, of course, be aware that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 7-2 to keep the UK Bank Rate unchanged at +0.1% while at the same time signaling that an upward movement was likely soon - either at their December meeting or, perhaps more likely, in February at the time of their next full report.

The Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing produced by J P Morgan using the data from IHS Markit edged up in October to 54.3 and is still, in theory at least, pointing to an expansion of activity in the sector globally.

European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator and Capacity Utilisation, October 2021:  The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for six sectors of the economy and then uses five of these (financial services is not included in the ESI) to compile its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI).

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, October 2021:  The results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) paint a picture of a resilient manufacturing sector in which output volumes grew strongly despite a range of supply challenges and cost/price pressures. The survey identified an easing in total orders but this comes as a comparison with the multi-decade high levels registered last quarter - as a result, total orders growth remains at a high level.

UK GDP, August 2021:  After a small fall in the economy in July (the figure of -0.1% has been revised down from +0.1%), U

UK Manufacturing Output, August 2021:  The new data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has, like the GDP and investment figures we discussed a couple of weeks ago, been re-based to 2019 prices and, perhaps more importantly, revised - significantly so in the case of some historical time series.

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