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ECONOMIC DATA THIS WEEK

European Industrial Output, September 2016:  Data from Eurostat for September shows a fall of -0.8% in total industrial production for the Euro-zone and a fall of -0.7% for the EU28 as a whole.  This continues the somewhat see-saw trend we have seen in this data during 2016, but the underlying trend remains upwards with industrial production in the Euro-zone increasing by +1.8% compared to September 2015, with growth of +1.6% for the EU28 overall.

The breakdown of the data by sector shows that output of capital goods in the Euro-zone was -2.2% lower than in August, but +1.2% higher than a year ago; for the EU28 as a whole, the trends are -1.6% and +1.5% respectively.

Looking at the 12-month trend, among the 22 member States for whom the data is published, total industrial production increased in 19 and fell in only 3;  the fastest growth was in Lithuania (+7.9%) and Slovenia (+7.4%), with the only reductions being recorded in Denmark (-3.2%), France (-1.0%) and Ireland (-0.9%).

You can download the Eurostat News Release from their web-site at http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat or request it from MTA.

European GDP, 3rd Quarter 2016:  The second flash estimate by Eurostat confirms that the Euro-zone economy expanded by +0.3% compared to the previous quarter and was +1.6% larger than a year ago.  For the EU28 as a whole, the quarter-on-quarter growth rate was +0.4% and the annualised rate is +1.8%.

This release also has the first view by country, although not all the Q3 data is available yet.  Among the 21 Member States for which we have the 3rd quarter trends, none saw their economies contract in this period on either the quarter-on-quarter trend or the annualised rate.  During Q3, the Finnish, French and Italian economies (which had been either flat or falling in the 2nd period of the year) all returned to growth, although one of the weakest outcomes was for Germany which saw its rate of growth halve between the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

You can download the Eurostat News Release from their web-site at http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat or request it from MTA.

USMTO and US CTMR, September 2016:  The US Manufacturing Technology Orders (USMTO) programme tracks orders received in the US market, irrespective of origin - the data in this report are based on the totals of actual data reported by companies participating in the USMTO programme.  With IMTS in the month, there was a strong result for September, but the year to date figure for the first nine months is still -6.4% lower than in the same period of 2015.

The AMT News Release reports that all the major customer sectors, except Automotive, showed a strong increase in September; they point to a pause in this market as US consumers switch demand from cars to “trucks”.  Looking at the regional trends, two regions - South-East (+28%) and West (+2%) - are running ahead of the 2015 level for the January to September period, while the other four are still in negative territory, with the largest fall being in the South-Central region (-28%).

The US Cutting Tool Market Report (CTMR) tracks sales of cutting tools in the US market and, like the USMTO programme, reports on the basis of the returns that are received.  For the first 9 months of the year, the market for cutting tools is down by -7.5% compared to the same period of 2015.  There is no regional breakdown for cutting tools.  The cutting tool market does not seem to have been stimulated by IMTS in the same way as the data for manufacturing technology (mainly machine tools) reported in the USMTO series.

You can download the USMTO and US CTMR News Releases AMT web-site at www.amtonline.org or request them from MTA.

Flash Estimate of UK Productivity, 3rd Quarter 2016:  With publication of employment data to match the GDP figures we reported a couple of weeks ago, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released a flash estimate that shows an increase of labour productivity for the whole economy of +0.2% - this is based on output per hour which is the ONS’s preferred headline measure.

This is a slower rate of productivity growth than in the 2nd quarter as a result of slower expansion in GDP combined with an increase in both average weekly hours worked and the number of people in work.

You can download the ONS Statistical Bulletin from their web-site at www.ons.gov.uk or request it from MTA.