The UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to a 47-month high of 53.7 in April – its strongest reading since May 2022 – and was little changed from the earlier flash estimate of 53.6. The headline index has now remained above the neutral 50.0 threshold, indicating expansion, for six consecutive months.
Publishing schedules mean PMI data are currently available for only a limited number of countries, with further releases due early next week. This article therefore focuses on the UK, with a broader international update to follow in the next edition.
Four of the five sub-components – output, new orders, employment and suppliers’ delivery times – signalled improved operating conditions, while stocks of purchases continued to decline, albeit at a weaker pace. Manufacturing output rose for the sixth time in seven months, driven by stronger new orders, backlog clearance and a modest build-up of finished goods. Growth was broad-based across consumer, intermediate and investment goods sectors.
Total new orders increased for a fifth consecutive month, with the pace of expansion among the strongest in four years, partly reflecting clients bringing forward purchases ahead of expected supply disruptions and price rises. Export orders also rose for a fourth month, supported by demand from the US, China, Japan and India, though growth was constrained by the impact of Middle East tensions and disruption to transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Business optimism fell to a one-year low amid concerns over geopolitical instability and policy uncertainty, although firms still expect output growth over the coming year, supported by new products, marketing activity and improved client confidence. Meanwhile, supply chain pressures intensified, with vendor performance deteriorating at the sharpest rate in nearly four years due to freight shortages, port disruption, customs delays and ongoing regional conflict.
You can access the UK Manufacturing PMI Report on the “PMI by S&P Global” website at https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases or on request from MTA.