Although the latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) show that manufacturing output fell again in the 3 months to December, it did so at a slower pace than in the 3 months to November. Total order books were reported to be “below normal” but, again, at a lesser rate than in the previous survey.
Note that although this survey is dated December, the data collection took place between 24th November and 10th December, so the results really cover the 3-month periods from September to November (past) and December 2025 to February 2026 (future). A similar principle applies to the other months mentioned in this report.
The overall fall in output in the 3 months to “December” came as 15 of the 17 sub-sectors in the ITS analysis reported a decline. With the three main contributors to this trend being the “chemicals”, “metal products” and “mechanical engineering” industries, this makes the results more significant, especially for those in the tooling part of our industry as the latter two are among our key end-user industries. Adding to the gloom is the fact that respondents to the survey anticipate another decline in manufacturing output over the coming 3-month period.
As noted in the introduction, total order books were reported as “below normal” and although not as weak as in November (or October), it is still well below the long-run average for this measure. There was a similar result for export orders, with a better but still negative balance for this question that is below the long-run trend level.
Stocks of finished goods were reported as more than “adequate” in December (+8%) but less so than in November (+16%); this means that the balance has moved back below the long-run average (+12%).
You can get the Press Release of the CBI ITS from their website at www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre (17 December) or request it from MTA (we can also provide a summary of the results).