The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey shows UK manufacturing output fell during the three months to June, to -33% – the weakest since August 2020. Manufacturers expect this decline to continue, forecasting a further -31% fall in output in the three months to September.
Based on responses from 288 manufacturers, the survey highlights ongoing weakness across the sector, with output, total orders and export orders all remaining below normal levels. While selling price expectations eased compared with May, they remain significantly above historical averages.
The downturn was widespread, with 12 of 17 sub-sectors reporting contractions. The decline was driven primarily by the food, drink & tobacco, mechanical engineering, paper, printing & media, and metal products sub-sectors. No sub-sector recorded an increase in output.
Total order books remained below “normal” in June (-45%, compared with -41% in May), representing the weakest reading since September 2020 and remaining well below the long-run average (-13%).
Export order books were also below “normal” in June (-33%, compared with -29% in May), remaining weaker than the long-run average (-19%).
Expectations for average selling price inflation remained elevated in June (+22%), although this was lower than May’s reading (+38%). Selling price expectations continue to stand well above the long-run average (+8%).
Stocks of finished goods were reported as more than “adequate” in June (+11%, compared with +7% in May), broadly in line with the long-run average (+12%).
You can get the Press Release of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey from their website at http://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre (23 June) or request it from MTA.