European GDP, 1st Quarter 2021: The preliminary flash estimate from Eurostat shows Euro-zone GDP falling by -0.6% compared to the final period of 2020; as this follows a reduction of -0.7% between Q3 and Q4 last year, the Euro-zone has entered a 2nd phase of the recession usually referred to as a “double-dip”. For the EU as a whole, the Q1-21 GDP trend was -0.4%, so this too is in a double-dip recession.
Compared to the 1st quarter of 2020 (a year ago), GDP in the Euro-zone has fallen by -1.8% with a -1.7% decline for the EU as a whole.
Data is only available for a few individual countries; perhaps the most remarkable figure is the quarter-on-quarter reduction of -1.7% in Germany, although it is worth noting that their economy grew in the final period of 2020, so is unlikely to see a double-dip recession. Indeed, the largest EU economies all had different trends; the French economy grew by +0.4% at the start of 2021 but contracted by -1.4% at the end of 2020 (the opposite way round to Germany), while Italy had a fall of -0.4% in Q1-21 to follow the decline of -1.8% at the end of 2020 and Spain followed a flat trend in Q4-20 with a reduction of -0.5% at the start of this year.
You can download the Eurostat report from their web-site at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/news/euro-indicators (30 April) or request it from MTA.