The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) compiled by the European Commission rose in October for both the EU (+1.0 points to 96.7) and the euro area (+1.2 points to 96.8). The improvement was driven by higher confidence across nearly all sectors – industry, retail trade, construction, and among consumers – while confidence in services remained broadly stable.
Capacity utilisation was unchanged in the EU compared with July, but increased slightly in the euro area.
The European Commission constructs the ESI from a series of surveys covering five sectors of the economy. Confidence indicators for each sector are combined into the overall ESI, which is expressed as an index relative to its long-term average. Although published as October 2025 data, the survey was conducted between 1 and 23 October, meaning the results primarily reflect developments in September. The three-month periods therefore refer to July – September (past) and October – December (future).
Industry confidence strengthened in October (+1.3 points), driven by managers’ brighter production expectations and improved assessments of overall order books. Evaluations of finished goods inventories remained broadly stable. Among indicators not included in the headline measure, managers’ views on export order books and past production trends improved markedly.
Among the largest EU economies, the ESI rose significantly in France (+2.5), Italy (+1.4) and Germany (+1.0), remained broadly stable in the Netherlands (+0.3), and declined in Spain (-0.9) and Poland (-1.5).
As the ESI is benchmarked against each country’s long-term average, cross-country comparisons are best made by looking at positions relative to those historical norms. In this survey, 12 Member States recorded an ESI at or above 100: Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. Among EU candidate countries, Albania and Montenegro also exceeded the 100 threshold.
You can download the EC report and statistical annex from their website at https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/business-and-consumer-surveys/download-business-and-consumer-survey-data/press-releases_en (open the 2025 box) or you can request it from MTA.