Industrial Production (IP) for the European Union (EU) was +0.8% higher than in August, but the Euro-zone only grew by +0.2%. Total IP in the EU rose by +2.0% compared to September 2024, with an increase of +1.2% for the Euro-zone. All of the non-Euro countries grew in September with Denmark (+7.2%), Sweden (+5.3%), Poland (+4.0%) and Bulgaria (+3.3%) particularly strong.
Firstly, a reminder that the Eurostat data uses Industrial Production rather than manufacturing (which is not broken down in their data) so it is not directly equivalent to the UK figures at this level, although the figures for capital goods are comparable. Manufacturing makes up the largest part of IP, but utilities and energy are included in this category.
It is interesting to note the divergence between the EU figures and the subset for the Euro-zone. We noted in the introduction that the non-Euro countries (there are 7 of these, with 20 in the Euro-zone) all reported growth in September, and this is continuing a positive trend that has been running for a while, especially in Poland and Sweden which are the largest manufacturing nations in this group.
In contrast, the major Euro-zone economies – Germany, France, and Italy – have been relatively weak, leading to this divergence that has been running since the trade-related spike in March.
Tracking quarterly data is more difficult due to the format that Eurostat uses, but the index figures for the latest six months are available so we can calculate that total IP for the EU in Q3-2025 was +0.2% higher than in Q2-2025 while it was unchanged for the Euro-zone. Among the major industrial economies, German IP fell by -0.4%, France saw a rise of +0.7%, Italy was down by -0.3% and Spain increased by +0.2%; outside the Euro-zone, Poland and Sweden both recorded growth of +1.1%.
At the sub-sector level, in the month-on-month data, capital goods output grew by +0.4% in the EU and +0.3% for the Euro-zone. In comparison with a year ago (September 2024) capital goods output increased by +1.7% for the EU and +1.1% in the Euro-zone.
While Ireland provides its usual distortion to the month-on-month figures (a fall of -9.4% in September reversed the +9.5% growth in August), the overall trend looking back over 12 months is less affected. Compared to a year ago, 16 of the 27 Member States saw an increase in total IP, with the other 11 registering a decline. The strongest percentage growth was in Sweden (+14.7%), Denmark (+9.5%) and Greece (+7.1%), while Bulgaria (-5.6%), Luxembourg (-3.4%) and Lithuania (-2.3%) had the most significant declines. You can get the Eurostat figures from their website at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators (13 November) or request it from MTA.