There was a mixed set of results for the handful of countries that have a flash edition of the manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) numbers; this was in terms of both the trend and the levels. Of the 8 countries reporting, 5 (including the UK) were above 50 and 4 – again including the UK – were higher than in November.
As noted above, the UK saw an improvement on the November reading which had, in turn, been the first above the crucial threshold since September 2024. The first estimate for December came out at 51.2 (50.2 in November) and this improvement was mainly down to the output element rising to a 15-month high.
Other than this, there is not much detail in the report that would give us a clue specifically about the manufacturing sector, other than to note the quote that “Manufacturers suggested that rising competitive pressures across domestic and export markets were the main factors weighing on business optimism, particularly due to greater operating costs” and that employment is still falling (this is to be expected as it usually lags the activity cycle).
For the Euro-zone, the overall average flash manufacturing PMI eased back to 49.2, which is its lowest reading since April, not least because the output element fell and ended a 9-month run of positive figures. We don’t have any indication about orders from the report, apart from noting that new orders from overseas fell more quickly in manufacturing than in services. We also need to bear in mind that suppliers delivery times lengthened to the largest extent since October 2022, but this positive impact from this on the index could be misleading if it was caused by logistical delays rather than busy suppliers.
At this stage, the only Euro-zone countries with a PMI report are France and Germany, and there is an interesting divergence between them. The reading for Germany slipped back to 47.7 (the lowest of the year apart from January) thanks to a significant dip in output, orders declining at their fastest rate since January and employment falling, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in November. Meanwhile, France registered 50.6 which is its highest since the same figure was reached in August 2022 – in that period, there have only been two other months (January 2023 and August 2025) when the French manufacturing PMI was above 50. For France, while there was an improvement in output, it was still just the wrong side of the threshold and the positive overall reading seems to have been driven by rising employment (in contrast to other countries).
There is also a mixed pattern among the 3 Asian countries with a flash manufacturing PMI. Although the reading for Japan improved to 49.7 (taking it back to its August level), it remained below the crucial threshold. Australia also saw a better outcome than in November but in this case, it already was in positive territory and the value of 52.2 was the best since August. Finally, while India continues to have the strongest reading of those with a flash figure, this slipped back to 55.7 which was their lowest since December 2023.
Finally, the US extended its run of positive manufacturing PMI readings to 5 months (and 11 of the 12 months of 2025, with July the only exception) despite a slight reduction from 52.2 in November to 51.8 for December.
You can access all the flash reports on the “PMI by S&P Global” website at https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases or on request from MTA.