The global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing, published by S&P Global, rose marginally from September’s revised reading of 50.7 to 50.8 in October. This marks the third consecutive month above the 50.0 threshold, indicating ongoing – though modest -expansion in global manufacturing activity. Beneath this headline figure, however, the data continue to reveal significant variation across countries.
In the United Kingdom, the manufacturing PMI climbed to a 12-month high of 49.7 in October, rebounding from a five-month low of 46.2 in September. The improvement reflected companies running down backlogs, rebuilding inventories, and – in some cases – a restart of production at JLR following a recent cyberattack. While three of the PMI’s five sub-components (new orders, employment, and stocks of purchases) continued to signal contraction, output and suppliers’ delivery times pointed to a modest improvement in operating conditions. Nevertheless, manufacturers continued to face challenging market conditions, with demand from both domestic and overseas customers falling again. Total new business contracted for a 13th consecutive month, though at a slower pace than in September. All three surveyed sectors reported weaker new orders, led by investment goods producers, while intermediate goods firms saw the mildest decline.
In the eurozone, the manufacturing PMI edged up from 49.8 in September to 50.0 in October, returning to neutral territory for the first time since August’s reading, which ended a 37-month streak (from July 2022) of sub-50 readings. October marked an eighth consecutive month of factory output growth across the euro area, although the overall rate of expansion was mild and slightly below the recent average. Production rose despite stagnant new orders, while export demand remained a headwind, declining for a fourth straight month.
Performance varied by country. Greece led growth at 53.5, followed by Spain at 52.1, both reaching two-month highs. The Netherlands and Ireland also remained above the 50.0 threshold, though their PMIs eased from September. In contrast, Italy, Germany, Austria, and France all saw modest month-on-month improvements but continued to register below 50.0, indicating contraction.
Among other EU countries, Sweden’s PMI eased slightly but remained firmly in positive territory at 55.1. Hungary also declined marginally yet stayed above 50.0, while Poland rose but remained in contraction. Romania and Czechia both slipped further into negative territory.
Elsewhere in Europe, Switzerland’s PMI rose but stayed below 50.0, extending a negative run that began in January 2023. Kazakhstan and Türkiye both weakened further, with the latter recording the lowest PMI globally at 46.5.
Across Asia, trends were mixed. China’s PMI declined slightly but remained above 50.0 for the third consecutive month. South Korea fell back below the threshold after briefly moving into expansion in September, ending a seven-month streak of contraction. Pakistan improved but stayed below 50.0, while Japan saw a further decline into negative territory. Taiwan also improved but remained in contraction. India, meanwhile, strengthened to 59.2, the highest PMI globally, and the ASEAN regional PMI rose for a fourth straight month above 50.0.
In the Americas, the United States saw further improvement, with the PMI rising further into expansionary territory in October. Growth was domestically driven, as export orders declined amid tariff-related trade disruptions. Canada’s PMI increased to a nine-month high of 49.6, just below the expansion threshold. Colombia recorded further growth, while Brazil improved slightly but remained in contraction. Mexico’s PMI dipped marginally, marking a second consecutive month below 50.0 after briefly turning positive in August, which had ended a 13-month run of sub-50 readings.