The Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing produced by J P Morgan using the data from S&P Global eased back to 50.4 December – still positive but its lowest in the current run of five months above the key threshold for this series. Around the world there is a mix of both trends (up or down on November) and levels (above or below 50) which we explore in this article.
The overall global average is still above the crucial 50 level that marks the boundary between expansion and contraction of activity in the manufacturing sector. It is also worth noting that this may get revised as it was published before the figures for Kazakhstan, Romania and Thailand were available and the reading for Japan turned out slightly better than the flash index that was used in the calculation. Globally, output levels eased, while new orders and employment were unchanged; the index was also helped up by a positive input from suppliers delivery times, although this may be misleading as we see in some of the country reports.
Across the 29 countries and 2 regions (note that we also cover the 8 euro-zone countries separately but not the 6 in the ASEAN group), 18 were in positive territory (including the UK), Japan was exactly on the threshold at 50.0 and 12 reported a contraction in activity. The strongest reading was Sweden at 55.3 (taking over from India which had held that position in the other eleven months of 2025) and the weakest was Switzerland at 45.8. Compared to the November readings, 15 were higher, Australia was unchanged and 16 saw a reduction; the fastest riser was France (up by 2.9 points), with Switzerland having the largest decline (down by 3.9 points).
The UK recorded its second successive positive PMI reading – this follows a 13-month run of sub-par figures – with output up for the 3rd month in a row and new orders growing for the first time since September 2024. The output trend had been affected by the cyber-attack at JLR but it looks like the underlying trend is moving in the right direction, albeit only slowly. It is, however, worth noting that the final reading was lower than the flash estimate which had been published in mid-December.
Output increased in all three sub-sectors – consumer, intermediate and investment goods – and this is the first time that all three have moved in the same direction since August 2024, giving further credence to the view that a corner may have been turned. Analysis of the orders situation brings a note of caution; despite growth overall, this was concentrated in the consumer goods sub-sector with investment goods producers reporting a fall in total new orders and export new orders fell for the 47th month in a row in December. Employment also declined, but this is to be expected as it usually lags the activity cycle.
The manufacturing PMI for the Euro-zone fell to its lowest level since March 2025 as six of the eight countries recorded a lower figure than in November – the exceptions were France (see above) and Greece. This was due to output falling after 9 positive months and an acceleration in the pace of decline of orders – like the UK, the latter was mainly for exports (including intra-Euro-zone business). Within the region, four countries – Greece (52.9), Ireland (52.2), Netherlands (51.1) and France (50.7, its highest for 42 months thanks to the strong improvement) – had positive PMI readings, while Spain (49.6 and back below 50 for the first time since April), Austria (49.3), Italy (47.9) and Germany (47.0 – its lowest since February and well down on the flash reading) were all negative.
Among the other five EU countries, Poland (48.5) was the only one to have a lower reading than in November; Romania (48.9) was also showing a contraction in activity despite an improvement in the manufacturing PMI. Czechia (50.4 – only its second positive value and the best since May 2022), Hungary (53.7) and Sweden (55.3) were all above the 50 threshold in December.
Elsewhere in Europe, as noted above, Switzerland had the weakest PMI in this report thanks to the large reduction compared to November; Türkiye and Kazakhstan were both higher in December but only the latter had enough of an improvement to get them into positive territory, while Turkiye has now been negative for 21 consecutive months.
With the exception of Japan whose manufacturing PMI reading was exactly 50.0, all of the Asian countries and the ASEAN block had positive PMI readings. Although India has the strongest reading in the continent with 55.0 implying significant expansion, it was -1.6 points down on November and at its weakest since December 2023 – as a result, it lost its top spot globally to Sweden. The ASEAN group was the only other faller in Asia and the improvements in China (up 0.2 points to 50.1), South Korea (up 0.7 points, also to 50.1) and Taiwan (up 2.1 points to 50.7) were all enough to give them their first positive readings since October, September and February respectively.
In contrast, in the Americas, Canada (48.6) was the only country to have a higher (but still contractionary) manufacturing PMI than in November. Despite reductions, Columbia (52.6) and the USA (51.8) were still positive, while the already negative readings in Brazil (47.6) and Mexico (46.1) weakened further.
The individual S&P Global PMI reports are available to download on their web-site at https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases but we also have a summary charts report which is available to download below. You should note that the PMI readings for Hungary, Sweden and Switzerland are not compiled by S&P Global but can be found with an appropriate internet search (it also means that they are not part of the global PMI calculation).