Completing the reporting on the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing sector, the global “total” – calculated by J P Morgan based on data from S&P Global – slipped back into negative territory following what turned out to be a brief reprieve in June. One of the main drivers was a sharp fall in the reading for the USA, although this bucked the trend for the region.
In terms of the activity, the fall in the global manufacturing figure included output falling, although only modestly, following a small increase in June. All three of the manufacturing sub-sectors – investment (capital), intermediate and consumer goods – shared in this reversal of fortunes. Total new orders declined for the 3rd time in the past 4 months, while new export business decreased for the 4th successive month.
Employment, which often lags the cycle, fell for the 12th month in a row but there was a small boost to the index from lengthening suppliers’ delivery times. Prices, both input and output, were broadly stable in July at the global level, although this is not part of the PMI calculation.
The only European country we were missing in last week’s report (https://www.mta.org.uk/resources/purchasing-managers-index-for-manufacturing-45/) was Switzerland; they saw a slight fall in their already negative manufacturing PMI.
The other block that was missing because of our lunchtime deadline were the countries in the Americas. We have already mentioned the sharp fall in the USA where the reading of 49.8, while only just below the threshold, was negative for the first time since December 2024. The only other reduction on that continent was Brazil where the manufacturing PMI edged down fractionally and remains in negative territory.
The other three countries all saw a higher reading than in June, but only Columbia is showing an expansion of its manufacturing sector, while Canada and Mexico remain below the threshold.
The new data confirms that the strongest reading was in India (59.1) with the weakest shared by Poland and Turkiye (both 45.9). The most improved from the June figures were Mexico (up by 2.8 points) and Sweden (up by 2.4 points), with the largest downturn being in the USA (-3.1 points). Across the 29 countries and 2 regions, only 11 had a manufacturing sector PMI above the 50 threshold in July.
The individual S&P Global PMI reports are available to download on their web-site at https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases but we also have a summary charts report which is available to download below. You should note that the PMI readings for Hungary, Sweden and Switzerland are not compiled by S&P Global but can be found with an appropriate internet search (it also means that they are not part of the global PMI calculation).