Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that total UK manufacturing output fell by -0.3% in the 3 months to November 2025 compared with the previous period (June to August 2025). There were reductions in output in 7 of the 13 sub-sectors, most notably, the automotive industry, which fell by -18.9% as a result of the Cyber attack on JLR.
However, this means that there is an important trend in the monthly data, especially for this industry, which is worth noting. The month-on-month changes for the automotive industry were -29.5% in September, +9.5% in October (as JLR production was slowly re-started) and +25.5% in November. In turn, the impact on the manufacturing sector as a whole was to give output trends of -1.3%, +0.4% and +2.1% respectively. The headline figure noted above for the latest 3-month period is, therefore, somewhat misleading and will improve markedly next month when the sharp decline in September moves from the latest 3 months to the previous period.
Before we look at the other industries, it is worth noting that we see a similar effect on the capital goods sub-sector where output in the latest 3 months (September to November 2025) was -1.8% lower than in the previous period (June to August 2025) and down by -0.5% compared to a year earlier (September to November 2024). However, the month-on-month trend over the last three months has been -4.7%, +2.4% and +4.1% respectively.
Having already covered the automotive industry, there are mixed trends among the other three industries that we track in these reports:
- Machinery (sometimes referred to as mechanical engineering) output continues to improve with growth in the latest 3 months of +2.2% compared to the previous block and +7.4% higher than a year earlier; this was mainly due to a strong increase in October.
- Growth in the aerospace industry has been muted following a run of strong increases in the Spring and in the latest 3 months was -0.3% down on the previous period but, thanks to that boost earlier in the year, output was +7.5% higher than a year earlier.
- Output of the metal products industry has fallen by -1.8% compared to the previous block of 3 months and is -8.3% lower than a year earlier; however, the short-term comparison is mainly due to weakness in September (-4.5%) which has been partly reversed by growth of +2.7% in November that may be related to the JLR supply chain.
You can download the ONS Statistical Bulletin from their web-site at https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar (15 January) or request it from MTA; we also have an analysis of the key industries which is available to members – please contact Martin Redhead ([email protected]) if you would like these charts.