In the quarterly National Accounts released this week by ONS, UK GDP is estimated to have increased by an unrevised +0.6% in Q1 2026, following revised growth of +0.1% in Q4 2025 (previously estimated at +0.2%).
Services output increased by +0.8% in Q1 2026, following growth of +0.1% in Q4 2025. Services output is estimated to be +1.2% higher than in the same quarter a year earlier. Non-consumer-facing services (business-facing services) grew by +0.8% in Q1, while consumer-facing services increased by +0.7%. Within services, 11 of the 14 subsectors made positive contributions to growth in Quarter 1 2026. The largest positive contributions came from the “professional, scientific & technical activities” and “wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles & motorcycles” subsectors.
Construction output is estimated to have increased by +0.2% in Q1 2026 but remained -1.6% lower than in the same quarter a year earlier. “Repair & maintenance” grew by +3.3% over the quarter, while “new work” fell by -2.1%. Within “repair & maintenance”, the largest positive contribution came from “private housing repair & maintenance”, which grew by +4.3%. Within “new work”, the largest negative contribution came from “private new housing”, which fell by -3.1%.
The production sector is estimated to have grown by +0.2% in Q1 2026, following growth of +1.2% in the previous quarter. Production output is estimated to be -0.1% lower than in the same quarter a year earlier. Growth in production output during the latest quarter was mainly driven by a +0.7% increase in manufacturing, alongside +1.2% growth in “electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply”. These gains were partially offset by declines in “mining & quarrying”, which fell by -4.7%, and “water supply; sewerage, waste management & remediation activities”, which fell by -0.7% in Q1 2026.
Manufacturing growth in Q1 2026 reflected positive contributions from 7 of the 13 manufacturing subsectors. The largest positive contribution came from the “manufacture of transport equipment”, which increased by +5.4%, driven by +10.2% growth in the “manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers & semi-trailers”. This largely reflects a base effect resulting from comparison with Q4 2025, which included October 2025, when the industry had not yet fully recovered from the effects of a cyber incident in August 2025. You can download the ONS Statistical Bulletin for the National Accounts from their website at https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar (30 June) or request it from MTA.