With today being the first of the month, we only have Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for the Asian and European countries so far – we will update the full picture next week. The July data is again mixed, both in terms of the change from June and which side of the 50 threshold the various countries lie – the UK reading edged up to a six month high but is still indicating a contraction in activity.
The small improvement in the manufacturing PMI for the UK (to 48.0 from 47.7 in June) was largely because the pace of decline in output eased but this hides some less good news as this was concentrated in the consumer and intermediate goods groups – output for investment (or capital) goods manufacturers fell at a faster pace than in June. New orders fell at a faster pace, with the export element of this spread across most of the key overseas markets. Employment in the sector is also still falling and while this is partly linked to higher costs (National Minimum Wage and Employers NIC’s), it does usually lag the activity cycle, so this is not entirely a surprise.
The overall manufacturing PMI for the Euro-zone also edged up and at 49.8, it is at its highest for 3 years and tantalisingly close to returning to a positive reading. The output element of the calculation was positive for the 5th month in a row but orders are still negative, with export sales acting as a drag on demand as it fell in July having been neutral in the previous month. Employment is still falling but at the slowest pace for 23 months and the index was helped up by suppliers delivery times lengthening for the 2nd month in a row.
There is a mix of both trends and levels among the eight Euro-zone countries that have a PMI survey. Compared to June, only Greece and Ireland had lower readings, with an improvement, albeit only marginal in France and Germany, in the others. For the levels, we have an even split with Greece, Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain above the 50 threshold, while Austria, France, Germany and Italy are below it.
Among the other EU countries that have a PMI survey, the was an improvement in the reading for Hungary (which took them back above 50 for the first time since April), Poland (where the reading remains negative) and Sweden (its strongest positive value since April), while it fell in Czechia (dipping below 50 after a positive reading in June) and Romania (their weakest negative since April).
Elsewhere in Europe, we don’t have the Swiss figures due to a national holiday but Turkiye saw its manufacturing PMI fall further into negative territory, registering its lowest reading since October 2024; there was a small increase for Kazakhstan, but they were still fractionally shy of the 50 threshold.
There is also a mixed picture in Asia. South Korea and Taiwan which were the only ones to have a negative reading in June saw this slip further in the July data – in the case of Taiwan this meant their lowest reading since August 2023 – and they were joined below the threshold by China and Japan which both fell below this mark. In contrast, while the mildly positive reading for Pakistan was unchanged from its June level, the ASEAN region figure moved just above the 50 mark for the first time since March and the already positive values in Australia and India improved further this month – the latter continues to have the highest PMI figure in this report.
The individual S&P Global PMI reports are available to download on their web-site at https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases but we also have a summary charts report which is available to download below. You should note that the PMI readings for Hungary, Sweden and Switzerland are not compiled by S&P Global but can be found with an appropriate internet search (it also means that they are not part of the global PMI calculation).