The preliminary flash estimate of European GDP for Q2-2025 from Eurostat shows growth of +0.2% for the EU and just +0.1% in the Euro-zone, compared to the 1st quarter of the year. These represent a significant slowing of growth which was +0.5% and +0.6% respectively at the start of 2025. Compared to a year ago, the EU economy grew by +1.5%, with the Euro-zone expanding by +1.4%.
The latter only represents a slight slowing of the annualised growth rate as the Q2-2025 figure is broadly the same as a year earlier. All the data in this report is seasonally adjusted.
At this stage we only have data for 15 of the EU Member States; of these, Germany, Italy (both -0.1%) and Ireland (-1.0%) saw their economies contract compared to Q1, with Finland unchanged. As all of these had positive growth at the start of the year and the countries who had a negative trend in Q1-2025 – Estonia, Hungary, Portugal and Sweden – registered growth in the latest period, none of the countries for whom we have the data are in a recession.
We have commented previously on the data for the Irish economy and although large in the context of the other countries, the fall of -1.0% is relatively modest given the strong growth there over the previous 3 quarters (+4.6%, +4.5% and +7.4% respectively).
Looking at the comparison with a year ago (at the end of Q2-2025), all 14 of the Member States that have published their figure had a positive trend that ranges from +16.2% in Ireland and +3.0% in Lithuania down to +0.2% in Hungary and +0.1% in Austria. You can get the Eurostat figures from their website at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators (30 July) or request it from MTA.