The March 2026 release of the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), published by the European Commission, showed sentiment weakening to 96.7 (-1.5) in the EU and 96.6 (-1.6) in the euro area. The decline was driven primarily by sharply lower confidence among consumers and retailers, with a smaller drag from services, while construction confidence improved and industry remained broadly stable.
The ESI is derived from surveys across five sectors and indexed to a long-run average of 100, enabling historical comparison. Although labelled as March data, collection took place between 1-24 March, meaning the results largely reflect conditions over February and trends across December 2025-February 2026 (past) and expectations for March-May 2026 (future). Both the EU and euro area indices have remained below their long-run averages since mid-2022.
At sector level, industry confidence was stable (+0.2), as stronger order book assessments were offset by weaker production expectations and a slight rise in finished goods stocks; however, views on past production and export orders improved. Services confidence edged down (-0.4), with weaker demand expectations partly offset by firmer assessments of past demand. Consumer confidence fell sharply (-3.4) to a 2½-year low, reflecting deteriorating expectations for the broader economy, increased pessimism about household finances, and reduced willingness to make major purchases. Retail confidence also declined significantly (-2.0), driven by weaker business expectations despite some improvement in stock assessments. In contrast, construction confidence rose moderately (+0.7), supported by improved views on order books and employment.
Among the largest EU economies, sentiment fell notably in France (-3.7) and Spain (-2.4), and more modestly in the Netherlands (-1.5) and Italy (-1.3), while remaining broadly stable in Poland (-0.3) and Germany (-0.1). Eleven Member States recorded ESI readings above 100 – Croatia, Czechia, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and Spain – indicating above-average sentiment relative to their own historical norms. All other Member States remained below their long-run averages. Among EU candidate countries, Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia also recorded ESI readings above 100.
You can download the EC report and statistical annex from their website at https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/business-and-consumer-surveys/download-business-and-consumer-survey-data/press-releases_en (open the 2026 box) or you can request it from MTA.