The monthly GDP data from the ONS showed a slight decline of -0.1% in April, following growth of +0.3% in March and +0.4% in February.
However, the three-month rolling trend presents a smoother picture, with GDP rising by +0.7% in the three months to April, following growth of +0.6% in the three months to March and +0.5% in the three months to February.
We will focus on three-month trends for the remainder of this article and the accompanying piece on the manufacturing sector. It is worth noting that while manufacturing accounts for the majority of “production”, there are other components within this sector. In the three months to April, “electricity, gas, steam, & air conditioning supply” fell by -2.4%, and “water supply; sewerage, waste management, & remediation activities” declined by -1.0%, while there was also a fall of -0.8% in “mining & quarrying” activity. These declines were partially offset by +0.6% growth in manufacturing, which will be covered in more detail in the following article.
Construction output is estimated to have grown by +1.6% in the three months to April, compared with the three months to January. Both “repair & maintenance” and “new work” increased over the period, rising by +3.4% and +0.3% respectively. Within “repair & maintenance”, the largest positive contribution came from “non-housing repair & maintenance”, which rose by +3.5%. In “new work”, the largest positive contributor was “private commercial new work”, which increased by +2.1%.
Services output grew by +0.8% in the three months to April, compared with the three months to January. This was the main driver of GDP growth over the period and follows growth of +0.8% in the three months to March and +0.6% in the three months to February.
There was an increase in output in 12 of the 14 subsectors in the three months to April. The largest positive contributions at the subsector level came from “information & communication” (+1.7%), “wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles” (+1.2%), and “professional, scientific & technical activities” (+1.3%). The largest negative contribution at the subsector level came from “arts, entertainment & recreation” (-0.5%).
Consumer-facing services output grew by +0.6% in the three months to April, compared with the three months to January. The largest positive contributions over this period came from “accommodation” (+4.5%), “retail trade, except of motor vehicles & motorcycles” (+0.6%), and “buying & selling, renting & operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent” (+0.6%). The only negative contribution over this period came from “sports activities & amusement & recreation activities” (-4.9%). There are more details in the range of ONS Statistical Bulletins which can be downloaded from their website at https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar (12 June) or on request from MTA.