The decline in the UK manufacturing sector is also reflected in the latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) where output fell in the three months to February at broadly the same pace as in January. However, total order books contracted less quickly, although this appears to have come from domestic sources as export order books fell at the same pace.
The February* edition of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) shows manufacturing output over the past 3 months falling at the same pace as in January*, with 16 of the 17 sub-sectors in the ITS analysis seeing output volumes fall. The fastest pace of decline was in the “glass & ceramics”, “building materials” and “metal manufacturing” sub-sectors. On the plus side, there was a noticeable improvement in expectations for the coming 3-months period, with the first positive balance since last November being recorded.
Total order books were reported as “below normal”, but to a slightly lesser extent than in the January* survey, although this is still well below the long-run average for this measure. This modest improvement came from the home market, with the balance for export order books only being marginally less negative than in the previous survey.
Stocks of finished goods were regarded as “more than adequate” in February* but it has fallen back in the latest results and has the lowest balance since April 2024*.
- Note that although this survey is dated February, the data collection took place between 24th January and 12th February, so the results really cover the 3-month periods from November to January (past) and February to April (future). A similar principle applies to the other months mentioned in this report.
You can get the Press Release of the CBI ITS from their website at www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre (20 February) or request it from MTA (we can also provide a summary of the results).