The latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) show that manufacturing output fell in the three months to “February”, although at a slower pace in the period to “January”; for the coming three months, respondents expect output to fall at a similar pace. Total order books continue to contract at a slightly slower pace than in “January”.
You should note that although this survey is dated February, the data collection took place between 26th January and 12th February, so the results really cover the 3-month periods from November to January (past) and February to April (future). A similar principle applies to the other months mentioned in this report – hence our use of quotation marks for the months.
Despite the slower rate of contraction in manufacturing output than in the previous month, it still fell in 13 of the 17 sub-sectors covered by the CBI survey. The notes highlight that the fastest declines were among manufacturers of “metal products”, “food, drink & tobacco” and “mechanical engineering (machinery)” – two of these are important markets for the manufacturing technology sector.
Although total order books were reported as “below normal” to a slightly lesser extent than in the January* survey, this remains well below the long-run average for this measure. This was broadly spread across the sector, with export order books showing similar trends to that for total business.
There was an increase in the balance of reporting of stocks of finished goods being regarded as “more than adequate” at +14% (+3% in “January”) and this has edged back above the long-run average for this measure.
You can get the Press Release of the CBI ITS from their website at www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre (19 February) or request it from MTA (we can also provide a summary of the results).