The latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) show that the pace of decline in manufacturing output accelerated in the three months to “March”, back to the level we saw in “January”. With data collection taking place between 25 February and 13 March, it is likely that most of the responses will have been in the context of the war in the Middle East (which began on 28 February).
These dates also mean that although the survey is dated “March”, the results really cover the 3-month periods from December to February (past) and March to May (future). A similar principle applies to the other months mentioned in this report – hence our use of quotation marks for the months.
Manufacturing output fell in 11 of the 17 sub-sectors covered by the CBI survey. The notes highlight that the fastest declines were among manufacturers of “food, drink & tobacco”, “mechanical engineering (machinery)”, “metal products” and “chemicals” – the middle two of these are important markets for the manufacturing technology sector.
The outlook for output over the next 3 months were broadly neutral but it should be noted that the responses in this forward-looking question tend to be more positive than the outcome that is reported in subsequent editions.
Total order books were reported as “below normal” to a marginally lesser extent than in the previous survey but remain well below the long-run average for this measure. Export order books were also “below normal” but the pace of this eased noticeably compared to the “February” survey and moved above the long-run average for this measure.
Finally, the balance of reporting of stocks of finished goods being regarded as “more than adequate” eased to +10% (+14% in “February”) and just dipped back below the long-run average for this measure (+12%).
You can get the Press Release of the CBI ITS from their website at www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre (20 March) or request it from MTA (we can also provide a summary of the results).