According to the latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS), manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to May and at the fastest pace since December 2024; a further fall is expected in the coming three months. Total order books were slightly weaker than in the period to April and remain well below the long-run average.
The fall in output volumes was broadly based with 13 of the 17 sub-sectors seeing a decline in in the 3 months to May*; for MTA members, this is made worse by the fact that two of our key industries – metal products and mechanical engineering (machinery) – were mentioned in the top 3 sectors driving this decline (the other was “food & drink”).
Total order books continue to be reported as being below “normal” and at a slightly faster pace than in the period to April*. This largely reflects a weakening in domestic demand as, although still below “normal”, export order books improved relative to last month’s survey, but only back to the March* level and still significantly below the long-run average.
Stocks of finished goods were reported to be “more than adequate” in May*, but it was slightly less so than in April* and has just dipped under the long-run average (which is a good thing for future prospects in this case.)
* Note that although this survey is dated May, the data collection took place between 25th April and 13th May, so the results really cover the 3-month period from February to April (past) and May to July (future). A similar principle applies to the other months mentioned in this report.
You can get the Press Release of the CBI ITS from their website at www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre (22 May) or request it from MTA (we can also provide a summary of the results).