The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey shows UK manufacturing output fell during the three months to November, with a balance of -30% – the steepest three-month drop since August 2000. Manufacturers expect this decline to persist, forecasting a further -30% fall in the three months to February 2026.
Based on responses from 334 manufacturers, the survey highlights ongoing uncertainty ahead of the Budget, with customers delaying purchases and investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
The downturn was widespread, with 13 of 17 sub-sectors reporting contractions. “Food, drink & tobacco”, “chemicals”, and “mechanical engineering” were the main contributors to the decline.
Total order books remained below “normal” in November (-37%, compared to -38% in October), staying well under the long-run average (-14%). Export order books were also below “normal”, though less weak than in October (-31%, up from -46%), but still under the long-run average (-19%).
Stocks of finished goods were reported as more than “adequate” in November (+16%, up from +7% in October), standing slightly above the long-run average (+12%).
You can get the Press Release of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey from their website at http://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre (20 November) or request it from MTA; we can also provide a summary of the results.