The CECIMO Q1 2026 Economic and Statistical Toolbox points to early signs of stabilisation in the global machine tool market, with order activity showing modest year-on-year improvement after the sharp downturn of 2024-2025.
However, the recovery remains uneven and fragile. While demand indicators have improved in some regions, manufacturing confidence remains constrained by weak industrial investment, elevated uncertainty and continued pressure in key customer sectors. The data suggest that the sector may be approaching a turning point in the downturn, but a sustained recovery will depend on a broader improvement in capital expenditure and industrial activity.
The Toolbox document brings together sector intelligence across six key areas: historical sector performance, demand trends, investment activity, business climate indicators, broader economic developments, and developments in related industries.
The CECIMO8 total orders index – which combines the relevant order indices for Austria, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the UK – increased by +4% quarter-on-quarter and +8% year-on-year in Q1 2026. Global total orders also improved, rising by +1% quarter-on-quarter and +7% year-on-year. However, excluding the CECIMO8 economies, the global order index increased by +5% quarter-on-quarter and +19% year-on-year, indicating that order growth was considerably stronger in markets outside the CECIMO8 base.
Q1 2026 data point to a stabilisation in gross fixed capital formation following the strong performance recorded at the end of 2025. Both machinery and equipment investment and total fixed assets remained close to recent highs, although both eased slightly compared with Q4 2025. The continued strength of machinery and equipment investment is particularly relevant, as it indicates that firms maintained relatively robust spending on productive capacity. At the same time, total fixed assets remained elevated, suggesting that broader investment activity continued to provide support despite the modest quarterly moderation.
Taken together, the Q1 2026 data indicate that investment momentum remained resilient but showed signs of levelling off after the gains recorded in previous quarters. This points to a relatively supportive, although less clearly accelerating, capital expenditure environment at the beginning of 2026.
The latest CECIMO machine tool production data provide further context on the trends identified in the Q1 2026 Toolbox, broadly supporting the picture shown by Eurostat industrial production indicators while providing greater detail on the depth of the recent downturn. Looking back at full-year 2025, the rebound achieved during 2021-2023 had clearly lost momentum, resulting in a significant contraction in output. CECIMO members’ production declined by -6.6% in 2025, representing the second consecutive year of contraction. A downturn of this duration and magnitude suggests that the current weakness reflects more persistent demand-side factors rather than a temporary correction.
In particular, the slowdown is taking place against a backdrop of subdued industrial investment, tighter financing conditions and heightened uncertainty across important downstream sectors, including automotive, metal products and general manufacturing. These industries remain among the most significant sources of machine tool demand, and their continued weakness is a key factor limiting the speed and strength of the recovery.
You can download the report from the members area of the MTA website at https://www.mta.org.uk/members-area/market-intelligence/global-mt-report/.