In September 2025, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged higher in both the EU (+0.6 points to 95.5) and the euro area (+0.2 points to 95.5). By contrast, the Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) declined relative to August, falling to 97.1 in the EU (-0.9 points) and 96.4 in the euro area (-1.3 points). Both measures remain below their long-term average of 100.
The rise in the ESI was supported by stronger confidence in industry, services, and among consumers, while sentiment weakened in retail trade and remained broadly unchanged in construction.
The European Commission compiles confidence indicators across five sectors of the economy, which together form the ESI, which is expressed as an index relative to its long-run average. In September, industry confidence edged higher (+0.3). A sharp improvement in managers’ production expectations was largely offset by weaker assessments of current order books and a broadly unchanged view of finished goods inventories. Among survey questions not included in the confidence measure, managers reported greater pessimism about recent production trends but noted an improvement in export order books.
Among the largest EU economies, the ESI declined in the Netherlands (-0.7) and Germany (-0.4), while rising in Spain (+3.0) and Italy (+0.7). France (+0.3) and Poland (+0.1) recorded only marginal changes.
As noted above, the ESI is calculated against the long-run average, so we can look at the position of the individual countries against their own historical situation – this is the best way to compare between countries. Despite the overall improvement, only 10 Member States have an ESI at or above 100 in this survey – these were Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Greece, Lithuania, Malta, Poland (new this month at exactly the 100 level), Portugal and Spain; the Netherlands fell back to slightly below its long-run average in September. The EU candidate countries also participate in this survey and Albania and Montenegro were also above the threshold.
You can download the EC report and statistical annex from their website at https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/business-and-consumer-surveys/download-business-and-consumer-survey-data/press-releases_en (open the 2025 box) or you can request it from MTA.