After two months of decline, the ESI compiled by the European Commission ESI picked up a little, with the Euro-zone figure rising slightly more than for the EU. This was driven mainly by stronger confidence for the retail trade sector and consumers; construction also saw a positive trend and the industry element was marginally higher, but the services sector saw a slight fall in confidence.
The European Commission draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for five sectors of the economy and then uses these to calculate up its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) which is converted to an index based on the long-run average.
The calculation of confidence in the industry sector edged up marginally but is not significantly different from a stable position. This is based on three components with the respondents assessment of the current level of order books and the assessment of stocks of finished products unchanged from April*, while production over the coming 3 months improved slightly. The survey includes two other questions which are not included in the calculation and both output over the previous 3 months and export order books were significantly stronger.
Amongst the largest EU economies, the ESI improved noticeably in Italy (+2.8 points) and Germany (+1.5) but fell sharply in France (-3.5), with more modest reductions in the Netherlands (-0.8), Poland (-0.6 points) and Spain (-0.4).
As noted above, the ESI is calculated against the long-run average, so we can look at the position of the individual countries against their own historical situation – this is the best way to compare between countries. Overall, May* saw 11 Member States (up from 10 in April* with Malta and Romania dropping out of the list but Czechia, Latvia and Lithuania moving up above the threshold) have an ESI at or above 100 in this survey – the full list is Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Poland, Portugal and Spain. The EU candidate countries also participate in this survey and there has also been a change here with North Macedonia joining Albania and Montenegro in having an ESI above 100.
* Note that although dated May 2025, the data collection period ran from 1st to 20th of that month, so the trends really refer to April; therefore, the past 3 months period is for February to April and the coming period runs from May to July.
You can download the EC report and statistical annex from their website at https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/business-and-consumer-surveys/download-business-and-consumer-survey-data/press-releases_en (open the 2025 box) or you can request it from MTA.