The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) compiled by the European Commission (EC) remained broadly stable in November for both the EU (+0.2 points to 96.8) and the euro area (+0.2 points to 97.0).
The near-unchanged ESI reflects stronger confidence in services, retail trade and construction, almost fully offset by weaker sentiment in industry.
The ESI is derived from EC surveys across five economic sectors. Sector-specific confidence indicators are aggregated into the headline index, expressed relative to each country’s long-term average. Although released as November 2025 data, the survey was carried out between 1 and 20 November, so the results largely capture October conditions. The three-month periods therefore refer to August–October (past) and November–January 2025 (future).
Industry confidence fell by -0.7 points in November as managers reported weaker production expectations and poorer assessments of overall order books, outweighing improved views on stocks of finished goods. Among non-headline indicators, managers’ assessments of past production and export order books also deteriorated markedly.
Amongst the largest EU economies, the ESI improved in Spain (+2.0), Italy (+1.1), France (+0.8) and Poland (+0.5), while it remained broadly stable in Germany and the Netherlands (both -0.3).
Because the ESI is benchmarked to each country’s historical average, cross-country comparisons are best made by examining positions relative to those norms. In this survey, 13 Member States posted an ESI at or above 100: Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia and Spain. Among EU candidate countries, Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia also exceeded the 100 mark.
You can download the EC report and statistical annex from their website at https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/business-and-consumer-surveys/download-business-and-consumer-survey-data/press-releases_en (open the 2025 box) or you can request it from MTA.