In the second release of GDP data for Q1-2025, Eurostat reports quarter-on-quarter growth of +0.3% for both the EU and the Euro-zone – this is unchanged from the 1st estimate for the EU but a downgrade from +0.4% for the Euro-zone. Compared to a year ago, the EU economy is now estimated to have grown by +1.4%, with a rise of +1.2% for the Euro-zone.
This release also brings data for more of the individual Member States, with 21 of the 27 Member States having released data for Q1-2025. Of these, Slovenia (-0.8%), Portugal (-0.5%) and Hungary (-0.2%) saw their economy contrast compared to the final period of 2024, although Romania and Sweden recoded “no change”.
Therefore, no-one is in a recession, although Malta, where GDP fell in both Q3 and Q4 of last year, has yet to publish its numbers for the start of 2025.
There is slightly different perspective if you look back over the past 4 quarters – effectively an annualized growth rate. Here, among the 21 countries where we have the Q1-2025 data (and comparing this with the level at the end of Q1-2024), 4 have seen their economy contract over this period – Slovenia (-0.8%), Austria (-0.7%), Hungary (-0.4%) and Germany (-0.2%).
You can get the Eurostat figures from their website at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators (15 May) or request it from MTA.