According to the flash estimate published by Eurostat, GDP in the European Union (EU) showed quarter-on-quarter growth of +0.3% in the final period of 2024; growth in the Euro-zone was also put at +0.3%. For 2025 as a whole, the EU economy expanded by +1.6% while growth in the Euro-zone was +1.5%.
At this stage, we only have data for 20 of the 27 Member States; of these Ireland (-0.6%) and Romania (-1.9%) saw their economies contract in the 4th quarter of 2025 and, in both cases, this followed a decline in the 3rd period of the year, which means that they are both, technically in a recession. However, care is, as always, needed with the Irish figures where the economy is distorted by the presence of headquarters operations of a number of multi-national companies and it should also be noted that this data is classed as “experimental” by the Irish Statistics Office.
In addition, Estonia recorded no change in the size of its economy at the end of last year. The fastest quarter-on-quarter growth was recorded in Lithuania (+1.7%), Cyprus (+1.4%) and Poland (+1.0%).
Using estimates derived from the quarterly data, none of the Member States that have reported their figures for the final quarter saw their economy contract in 2025 as a whole. Excluding Ireland (+13.3%) for reasons noted above, growth ranged from +3.8% in Cyprus, +3.6% in Poland and +3.2% in Bulgaria down to +0.4% in Germany, +0.3% in Hungary and +0.1% in Finland. You can get the Eurostat figures from their website at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators (13 February) or request it from MTA.