Eurostat has downgraded its estimate of GDP in the European Union (EU) and the subset of the Euro-zone to quarter-on-quarter growth of +0.2% in the final period of 2024 (it was previously +0.3% for both areas). This also meant that growth in 2025 as a whole was eased to +1.5% for the EU (from +1.6%) and +1.4% (from +1.5%) for the Euro-zone.
With data now available for all 27 of the Member States, only Ireland (-3.8%), Romania (-1.9%), Estonia and Luxembourg (both -0.1%) saw their economies contract in the 4th quarter of 2025, while Austria was unchanged. Of those with a contraction, only Romania also saw a negative trend in the 3rd quarter and so is in a recession; Ireland, whose figures are notoriously volatile due to the presence of the headquarters of a number of very large multi-national companies (for tax reasons), had zero growth in Q3 following a small reduction in the 2nd period, so just avoids the “recession” epithet.
The fastest quarter-on-quarter growth in Q4-2025 was recorded in Malta (+2.1%), Lithuania (+1.7%), Croatia and Cyprus (both +1.4%).
Looking at the full year figures, none of the EU Member States saw their economies contract in 2025 (in 2024, Austria, Germany and Estonia recorded negative trends). The weakest year-on-year growth was in Germany and Finland (both +0.2%) and Hungary (+0.4%); in the other direction and excluding Ireland (+12.3%) for the reasons noted above, the strongest improvements were in Malta (+4.0%), Cyprus (+3.8%), Poland (+3.6%), Croatia (+3.2%) and Bulgaria (+3.1%).
For comparison, quarter-on-quarter growth for the UK is currently estimated to have been +0.1% in the 4th quarter of 2025 and +1.3% for the year overall
You can get the Eurostat figures from their website at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators (06 March) or request it from MTA.