The preliminary flash estimate of European GDP for Q4-2024 from Eurostat shows growth of +0.1% for the EU and a flat trend for the Euro-zone compared to the previous quarter.  This gives an initial estimate of GDP growth for 2024 as a whole on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis of +0.8% for the EU and +0.7% for the Euro-zone.

The latest figures represent a significant slowdown in the quarter-on-quarter growth rate which was +0.4% in both areas in the 3rd period of 2024.

At this stage we only have data for 12 of the EU Member States;  of these, 3 countries have seen their economy contract in Q4-24 (compared to Q3);  these are Ireland (-1.3% –  but note that this is often volatile because of the impact of the HQ operations of multi-national companies), Germany (-0.2%) and France (-0.1%) while Austria and Italy were unchanged (the latter for the second quarter in a row).

Looking at the comparison with a year ago (at the end of Q4-2023 – note that this is not the same as the growth rate comparing the full calendar year), 3 of the 12 EU Member States that have published their figure saw their economy contract – Austria, Germany (both down by -0.2%) and Estonia (-0.1%).

You can get the Eurostat figures from their website at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators (30 January) or request it from MTA.

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