The flash manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) numbers for April showed another sharp fall for the UK; having had he lowest reading in the world in March even after being revised up to 45.3, the latest figure is 44.0; this is the lowest for the UK since August 2023 and reflects lower output and orders, especially for exports.
The decline in output was the sharpest since August 2022, with overseas markets seemingly leading the way down. Export orders were hit by the increase in global trade uncertainty and US tariffs; apart from the pandemic, export orders were at their weakest since February 2009. As a result, employment fell again and business activity expectations weakened considerably in both the manufacturing and service sectors in the UK.
In contrast, the manufacturing PMI for the Euro-zone was fractionally higher than in the March reading, despite France and Germany both seeing their readings edge down slightly – this implies improvements elsewhere in the region but we will have to wait for the final numbers next Friday to see where this has happened. However, we have to remember that, at 48.7, the PMI is still indicating modest contraction in activity in the manufacturing sector.
At the Euro-zone level, the output element of the calculation showed an acceleration of the growth that was recorded in March, indicating expansion at the fastest rate for 3 years. In contrast, new orders fell at their fastest pace in 2025 so far and it is this, combined with a negative input from the third successive shortening of suppliers delivery times, that resulted in the overall PMI reading turning negative.
We only have separate data for France and Germany at this stage and , as noted above, their PMI fell slightly, but for different reasons. In France, this came despite an improvement in output, which turned positive at the fastest rate for 35 months, while in Germany, output grew more slowly and dragged the overall index back despite a second consecutive monthly rise in new orders, supported by a first rise in export sales in over 3years.
In Asia, the already strong Indian manufacturing sector has at least maintained its lead with the flash PMI rising slightly to its highest level since April 2024, but Australia saw its still positive reading slip back slightly. The other Asian country with a flash manufacturing PMI is Japan and here the negative level was broadly unchanged from the March figure.
Finally, the USA saw its manufacturing PMI improve slightly on the marginally positive level seen last month; this was mainly thanks to output returning to growth, albeit only just above the 50 threshold.
You can access these latest flash reports on the “PMI by S&P Global” website at https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases or on request from MTA.