After improving to the neutral value in November, the Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing produced by J P Morgan using the data from S&P Global slipped back to 49.6 in December. With some exceptions, the general trend for December 2024 was a lower reading with a majority of countries in negative territory, including the UK.
As noted above, the overall global index slipped back with both output and new orders falling after a slight increase in November. This meant that the index was below the crucial 50 threshold in 5 of the 6 months in the 2nd half of 2024, with the neutral reading of exactly 50 in November the only exception. With employment also falling at the global level, the index could have been worse were it not for the perverse positive contribution from extended suppliers’ delivery times.
The UK also saw its manufacturing PMI fall back in December and the reading of 47.0 was the joint lowest of the year (and lower than the flash estimate of 47.3 that we reported last month), book-ending the year by matching the low point that was recorded in January 2024. This came as output, new orders and employment all fell at an accelerated pace compared to November. The three sub-sectors of manufacturing – consumer, intermediate and investment (or capital) goods – all saw similar rates of decline in output. Supply-chain pressures continued to build, as the ongoing Red Sea crisis and disruptions to shipping and at ports led to an increased incidence of delivery delays and, as with the global indicator, was the only positive trend in December.
Overall, the Euro-zone manufacturing PMI edged down to a 3-month low of 45.1 but this hides a mix of trends among the 8 countries in this analysis. France (with a 55-month low of 41.9) and Austria saw a significant fall in their already negative PMIs, with smaller reductions recorded in Germany and Ireland; on the other hand, the Netherlands and Italy registered an improved, but still negative, reading while Greece and, to a lesser extent, Spain recorded stronger positive manufacturing PMI figures.
Elsewhere in the EU, Czechia, Poland and Romania saw a further weakening of their already negative PMI and Sweden was also down on the November level, albeit still above the 50 threshold. Hungary, which was just in positive territory in November, was the only country in this group to record an improvement, although it was only slightly higher.
Among the other European countries, Switzerland saw its negative PMI reading slip back very marginally, Türkiye recorded an improvement but that was not enough to move it above the 50 threshold and Kazakhstan extended its already positive reading to the highest point since we started tracking them in December 2023.
The picture in Asia is also mixed with three significantly weaker readings than in November, two that were fractionally lower and two with a modest improvement; this analysis overlaps with four readings that are above 50 and three below the threshold. Australia and South Korea saw a lower reading than in November (with the latter returning to negative territory), while China also had a lower PMI than in November but still indicated expansion in the manufacturing sector. The ASEAN group of countries and India both saw their positive readings edge down, leaving Japan and Taiwan recording a higher PMI with the former still below 50 and the latter above the threshold.
This leaves the Americas which generally saw lower manufacturing PMI readings than in November; the exception to this was Canada which managed a small improvement to its already positive reading. The mildly negative readings in the USA and Mexico edged down further in the month but both Brazil and Columbia saw a significant reduction, the latter of which was of sufficient size to take them below the 50 mark.
Overall in our analysis, only the ASEAN block, Brazil, Canada, China, Greece, Hungary, India, Kazakhstan, Spain, Sweden and Taiwan had manufacturing PMI’s above 50 in December. The strongest reading was in India (56.4) and the weakest in France (41.9); the largest improvements compared to November were in Greece (up by 2.3 points) and the Netherlands (+2.0 points), with the most significant reduction being in Columbia (down by 3.5 points).
The individual S&P Global PMI reports are available to download on their web-site at https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases but we also have a summary charts report which is available to download below. You should note that the PMI readings for Hungary, Sweden and Switzerland are not compiled by S&P Global but can be found with an appropriate internet search (it also means that they are not part of the global PMI calculation).