The final reports for the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing, published by S&P Global saw the global average edge down to 49.6, taking it back to the level we saw last December. This hides a variety of trends by country but the majority of those we cover in our report are still indicating contraction in manufacturing activity.
In the global summary, the PMI News release points to both output and new orders declining, with the latter moving into negative territory the main driver of the overall reduction in the Global PMI. This fall in production was concentrated in the investment and intermediate goods sectors, with consumer goods manufacturers reporting an increase in output for the 22nd consecutive month. Employment also fell and there was some contra-indication in the survey from a lengthening in suppliers delivery times, although this came mainly from shipping issues rather than because the suppliers are busy.
For the UK, although the final PMI came out higher than the flash estimate (for the 2nd month in a row), at 46.4 (the flash figure was 45.1), it remains firmly in negative territory and the third weakest in our coverage (behind only Switzerland and Canada). While this represents an improvement on March and April, it is still lower than any other readings since the start of 2024.
Furthermore, the only positive indication in the UK PMI calculation came from suppliers delivery times, which lengthened to the greatest extent so far in 2025, but this was linked to port disruption, tariff uncertainty and material shortages and not because business activity is strong. Employment, purchasing, stocks of inputs and inventories of finished products all weakened, alongside the falls in production and new business.
For the Euro-zone, the PMI edged up closer to the neutral position and at 49.4 is at its highest for 33 months. An increase in production (where this element of the calculation was unchanged at 51.5) helped in this process but orders being broadly stable, with a little growth in domestic demand balancing a still slightly negative (but improving) export picture was the main reason for the improvement. Employment remains negative – not unexpectedly as this usually lags the demand cycle – purchasing activity shrank, but at the slowest pace in the current 3-year cycle.
By country, Spain saw the largest improvement compared to April (+2.4 points) across the whole spectrum of this report, not just within the Euro-zone; this moved their manufacturing PMI above the 50 threshold for the first time since January. There was also a significant improvement for Austria and France, but they remain in negative territory. Greece was unchanged in its positive reading, while there was a very marginal slip in the negative values for both Germany and Italy. Ireland and the Netherlands also recorded slightly lower manufacturing PMIs than in April, the former above 50 and the latter below the threshold.
In the other EU countries which have a PMI survey, only Romania was higher than in April (and only just so). Hungary saw a fractionally lower figure and Sweden had a modest reduction in its reading but both of these were above 50. Czechia slipped further into negative territory but the main change was for Poland which saw a sharp fall in its PMI compared to April, moving it to its lowest reading since June 2024 and back below the threshold following three “positive” months.
In the other three European countries that we cover, Kazakhstan’s positive reading edged down fractionally, while Türkiye’s negative reading moved similarly in the other direction. However, the biggest change was in Switzerland which had both the largest month-on-month fall compared to April (-3.7 points) and the overall lowest reading globally (42.1) – it is also their lowest since the same value was recorded in November 2023.
There was a similar, if slightly less dramatic, picture in Asia. Although there was a modest reduction, India continues to have the highest manufacturing PMI (57.6) in this report; Pakistan and Australia also saw modest falls in their positive readings. There was a modest uplift in the sub-threshold readings in the ASEAN region, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan but China saw a significant fall in their manufacturing PMI which tool it below 50 for the first time since September 2024 and to its lowest level for another two years before that.
Finally, in the Americas, only Brazil had a lower reading than in April but this was significant as it moved them back into negative territory for the first time since December 2023. Despite a significant improvement, the manufacturing PMI for Mexico is still negative, with a more modest month-on-month increase leaving Canada in a similar position. The USA and Columbia both saw their already positive readings improve further in May.
Overall, of the 29 countries and two regions that we cover in this report (excluding the global average but including the Euro-zone and its constituent countries), 15 were higher than in April, one was unchanged, leaving the other 15 with a lower PMI reading. However, only 11 were above the threshold (50) which signals expansion of activity in the sector, with the other 20 below this level, pointing to contraction.
The individual S&P Global PMI reports are available to download on their web-site at https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases but we also have a summary charts report which is available to download below. Please note that the PMI readings for Hungary, Sweden and Switzerland are not compiled by S&P Global but can be found with an appropriate internet search (it also means that they are not part of the global PMI calculation).