The global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing, published by S&P Global, improved again in January, reaching a 3-month high of 50.9 – this is the 6th consecutive month above the 50.0 threshold. This was driven mainly by worldwide output growth being at the joint fastest pace since June 2024 underpinned by the strongest rise in new work for almost a year (although rates of expansion were mild in both cases).
Before leaving the global results, it is also worth noting that while investment goods was the only sub-sector not to see orders increase, it did see output on a positive trend and, slightly surprisingly, led the way in seeing growth in employment. The global results were compiled without Ireland and Mexico whose figures were not released until later in the week due to public holidays.
The UK manufacturing PMI improved, as predicted by the flash reading 10 days earlier, and at 51.8, it was at its highest level since August 2024. The pace of growth in output and new orders accelerated, with the latter helped by export demand increasing for the first time in 4 years. The improvement in orders was across all of the sub-sectors and while output was also positive for the investment and consumer goods groups, intermediate goods manufacturers recorded lower production levels. Employment is still falling but at the weakest rate in the 15 months that it has been on a downward trend. Suppliers delivery times also provided a boost to the overall index and, for the first time in a while, part of this was a genuine increase in purchasing of inputs rather than shipping issues.
The Euro-zone manufacturing PMI recovered almost all of the ground it lost in December but is still below the crucial 50 threshold that divides expansion (>50) and contraction (<50) in the sector. This was despite output for the region growing for the 10th time in 11 months (December was the exception) and came as 3 of the 5 elements in the calculation declined; most notable of these was new orders which fell for the 3rd consecutive month. Employment was cut for a 32nd month in a row and the decline in buying volumes slowed.
At the country level, 4 of the 8 Euro-zone countries that are part of the Euro-zone aggregate were above 50 – Greece, Ireland, France and (just) the Netherlands – with the other 4 below the threshold. Compared to the December reading, there were significant improvements in Germany and Greece and smaller rise for France and Italy; Ireland was unchanged in January while the reading fell noticeably in Austria and the Netherlands and more modestly in Spain.
Elsewhere in the EU, only Sweden was in positive territory; compared to the previous month, there were small increases for Sweden and Poland, while Romania, Czechia and, especially, Hungary were lower.
Elsewhere in Europe, Switzerland’s PMI improved significantly but is still below 50, extending their run of negative readings into a 4th year. Kazakhstan and Türkiye both saw their manufacturing PMI fall and are both below 50 with the former of these mostly reversing what turned out to be a one-off positive in December.
All seven of the Asian countries, and the ASEAN block, that we track (unlike the Euro-zone, we don’t monitor the breakdown of the ASEAN area, only the regional total) had manufacturing PMI readings above 50. There were useful increases in the reading for Japan, South Korea Taiwan and Australia, with a smaller rise in India; China and the ASEAN group were only fractionally above December’s reading, leaving Pakistan as the only country in this region where January saw a lower PMI.
Finally, there is a mix of both trends and levels among the 5 countries in the Americas. The USA and Canada have positive readings, Columbia is exactly on the 50 threshold and Brazil and Mexico have sub-par manufacturing PMI’s. Compared to December, Canada and, to a lesser extent the USA and Mexico showed an improvement, while Columbia and Brazil reported lower figures.
Across our whole report of 29 countries and 3 regions (and excluding the global average), 16 had positive manufacturing PMI readings, one (Columbia) was exactly on the threshold and the other 14 were below 50. The strongest reading was in Sweden (56.0) for the 2nd month in a row having taken over from India in December, while the weakest in January was Mexico (46.3). The largest changes comparing January with December were both in Europe with Switzerland improving by +2.4 points while Hungary fell by -4.7 points.
The individual S&P Global PMI reports are available to download on their web-site at https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases but we also have a summary charts report which is available to download below. You should note that the PMI readings for Hungary, Sweden and Switzerland are not compiled by S&P Global but can be found with an appropriate internet search (it also means that they are not part of the global PMI calculation).