ONS data shows that UK manufacturing output fell by -1.4% in July, the sharpest monthly drop since July 2024 (-1.6%). This extends the 2025 pattern of alternating gains and losses, following a +0.6% rise in June and a -1.0% fall in May, highlighting the ongoing volatility in manufacturing activity.
For consistency with ONS reporting and to smooth monthly swings, we focus on three-month rolling trends for the rest of this update.
Manufacturing output declined -1.1% in the three months to July 2025 versus the previous three months, with 9 of 13 subsectors contracting. The largest decline came from “basic metals and metal products” (-2.7%), its tenth consecutive three-monthly fall, mainly driven by “fabricated metal products” (-2.2%). Additional weakness came from “other manufacturing and repair” (-2.5%) and “transport equipment” (-1.4%), the latter led by “motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers” (-5.3%). These were partly offset by a +2.3% rise in “machinery and equipment n.e.c.”
By subsector, capital goods output fell -0.6% compared with the prior three months but remained +1.7% above its year-earlier level, the smallest short-term decline among the manufacturing sub-sectors.
Turning to our four key industries, automotive output (ONS series based on sector turnover) grew in February and March before retreating from April through July, leaving the latest three months -5.3% below the prior period and -5.6% down on a year earlier. SMMT production data shows a slightly different picture due to its lack of seasonal adjustment and use of units rather than turnover as the measure; on this basis, car production in the latest three months was 8.7% versus the prior period and -7.2% below a year earlier; in contrast, engine production rose +9.5% and +4.7% respectively.
Metal products remain weak despite links to machinery and transport equipment through sub-contract activity, and the inclusion of weapons and ammunition. Output in the latest three months fell -2.2% from the previous period and -5.4% year-on-year.
Aerospace, by contrast, has expanded for eight straight months, with output up +4.2% in the latest three-month period versus the prior and +6.1% above a year earlier.
Finally, machinery output continues to strengthen, rising +2.3% on the previous period and +7.9% year-on-year.
You can download the ONS Statistical Bulletin from their web-site at https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar (12 September) or request it from MTA; we also have an analysis of the key industries which is available to members – please contact Martin Redhead ([email protected]) if you would like these charts.