In the revised Quarterly National Accounts released this week, the ONS estimates that UK GDP grew by +0.5% in Q2 2026, revised up from the previous estimate of +0.4%. The latest estimate incorporates additional data and is also consistent with the methodological changes being introduced as part of Blue Book 2026, which will be published in October.
This follows an unrevised increase of +0.6% in Q1 2026. GDP for 2025 as a whole is estimated to have increased by +1.2%, revised down by -0.1% from the previous estimate. The level of GDP in Q2 2026 is now estimated to be +2.0% higher than in Q4 2024, up from the previous estimate of +1.9%.
Looking at the output sectors, services increased by +0.6%, construction by +0.8%, while production output fell by -0.1% in Q2.
Within services, non-consumer-facing (business-facing) services grew by +0.7%, while consumer-facing services increased by +0.4%. Nine of the 14 services subsectors contributed positively to growth. The largest positive contributions came from professional, scientific and technical activities, and information and communication.
Construction output increased by +0.8%, with both new work and repair and maintenance recording growth, of +0.9% and +0.8%, respectively. Within new work, the largest positive contributions came from private commercial and infrastructure new work, which grew by +4.5% and +2.9%, respectively. Within repair and maintenance, non-housing repair and maintenance provided the largest positive contribution, increasing by +1.0%.
The production sector fell by -0.1% in Q2, revised down from the first estimate of no growth, following a +0.3% increase in Q1. Despite the quarterly decline, production output was +0.4% higher than a year earlier.
Within production, output fell by -0.8% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply and by -4.5% in water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities. These declines were partly offset by increases of +0.5% in manufacturing and +2.1% in mining and quarrying.
Looking at manufacturing in more detail, 6 of the 13 manufacturing subsectors contributed positively to manufacturing growth in Q2. The largest positive contribution came from the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, which increased by +4.0%.
You can download the ONS Statistical Bulletin for the National Accounts from their website at https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar (30 September) or request it from MTA.