The estimates for quarter-on-quarter growth in UK GDP for the 3rd quarter of 2025 were unchanged from the first estimate in the National Accounts published just before the Christmas break. However, there were balancing revisions to growth in Q4-2024 (up by 0.1 percentage point to +0.3%) and Q2-2025 (down by the same amount to +0.2%) which left the annualized rate as at the end of Q3-2025 at +1.3%.
Although the overall estimates for the economy have not changed, there are revisions as you drill down into more detail. Manufacturing output is still estimated to have seen a quarter-on-quarter decline of -0.8%, but mining & quarrying output has been revised up to -0.4% (from -1.5%) and utilities activity is also now stronger than in the 1st estimate published in mid-November.
While only 5 of the 13 sub-sectors of manufacturing had a negative trend for output in the 3rd period of the year, this was led by the automotive industry at -4.7% (quarter-on-quarter) thanks mainly to the cyber-attack at JLR. Despite this, manufacturing output is now only -0.5% lower than a year ago (-1.0% in the first estimate) thanks mainly to an up-rating of activity in Q1-2025 which is now estimated at +0.7% (+0.3% in the first estimate).
Output of the construction sector is now put at +0.2% compared to the 2nd quarter (revised from +0.1% in the first estimate) and +2.2% higher than a year ago (previously +1.5%). Total service sector output was unchanged at +0.2% for the quarter-on-quarter trend but the comparison with a year earlier has been eased down to +1.4% (from +1.6% in the first estimate).
For MTA Cluster members, the most important part of the National Accounts is the industry breakdown of the investment figures. At the headline level, the trend for total business investment has been upgraded to +1.5% (from a fall of -0.3% in the initial estimate) but spending on “ICT & Other Machinery” (ICT&OM) has been revised down to a, still healthy, growth of +7.1% (from +10.1% when the first release was published). Compared to a year ago, total business investment grew by +2.7%, while spending on ICT&OM is up by 8.8%.
The breakdown of these figures, which is a combination of new data and revisions back to the start of 2024, shows that seasonally adjusted total manufacturing investment fell by -0.5% compared to the previous quarter but was +1.2% higher than in the 3rd period of 2024. On the same basis, investment by the “engineering & vehicles” industries rose by +0.1% and +4.6% respectively.
The manufacturing sector accounted for 10.8% of total business investment in the 3rd quarter of 2025, slightly down on its ratio for 2024 of 11.2%. However, the stronger outcome for the ICT&OM group means that it now accounts for a smidgeon over 40% of total manufacturing investment – this is up from 38.6% across 2024.
You can download the ONS Statistical Bulletin for the National Accounts from their website at https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar (22 December) or request it from MTA.