There was a sharp rise in the Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing in February with the index produced by J P Morgan using the data from S&P Global, reaching 51.9 which is its highest level since June 2022. Most of the individual readings were higher than in January, although the UK was a marginal exception to that general trend, and a majority were above the crucial 50 threshold.
In the global average report, business conditions improved significantly although, of course, this data was all collected (and the reports largely written) before the outbreak of war in the Middle East – the impact of that remains to be seen over the coming weeks. Globally, manufacturing output increased at the quickest pace since December 2021 and this was spread across the three sub-sectors – consumer, intermediate and investment goods. Geographically, the fastest output growth was in Asia, with the index component for the ASEAN region at its highest ever level (that series start in July 2016) and India has returned to top spot in the overall ranking. Orders are also growing, in this case at a 4-year (48 month) high rate.
For the UK, although the manufacturing PMI slipped back marginally to 51.7 (and below the flash estimate of 52.0), it remains comfortably in positive territory; it has been above the 50 threshold for 4 consecutive months. Output grew for the 5th month in a row and at the fastest pace since September 2024 and this was shared across the three sub-sectors. However, although new orders – and especially new export orders – strengthened to their fastest pace in 4½ years as a result of improved demand from China, the EU, Middle East and North America, the investment goods sub-sector was the only one to register a decrease in total new business. Manufacturing employment continues to fall but we expect this to lag the business cycle. Finally, supply chains remained stretched, with supplier delivery times lengthening for the 26th month in a row – note that this adds to the index in the calculation as it assumes that this is happening because suppliers are busy, even if it is actually the result of shipping and logistics delays.
In the Euro-zone as a whole (it is based on data for 8 countries in this grouping), the overall manufacturing PMI was at its highest for 44 months, with both output and new orders growing. The improvement in new orders was at the fastest pace since April 2022, although this was concentrated in the domestic markets of these countries as export (including trade with other Euro-zone countries) demand fell, albeit at the slowest pace for 3 months. Manufacturing employment in the region is still falling.
Looking at the 8 countries, only France had a lower reading than in January; this had been previewed in the flash figures we reported last week but, thanks to a slightly higher outturn than had been suggested, it remained just above the 50 threshold, leaving only Austria among the Euro-zone countries to be in negative territory despite a healthy improvement compared to their January reading.
There are more mixed trends among the other 5 EU countries who have a PMI survey. The already positive readings for Hungary and Sweden improved (the latter only slightly), while Czechia edged up to sit at exactly 50.0; in contrast, Poland and Romania saw their manufacturing PMI’s slip further into negative territory with the second of these seeing its lowest ever level.
Elsewhere in Europe, Kazakhstan, Switzerland and Turkiye continue to have sub-par PMI numbers and only the latter of these saw an improvement compared to the January reading.
With all of the Asian countries (and the ASEAN region) having a reading above 50 for the 2nd month in a row (and only Japan’s threshold figure of exactly 50 in December preventing this being 3 consecutive months), the interest is in the month-on-month trends. Five of the countries and the ASEAN block were above their January level and substantially so in most cases; the exceptions were Australia which was at a 4-month low and South Korea which was only slightly down.
In the Americas, only the USA had a lower reading than in January but it remained in positive territory for the 7th consecutive month. Of the others, Brazil and Mexico remained below the 50 threshold despite their improvements, Columbia kicked on into positive territory from its reading of exactly 50 in January and Canada improved to its best level since January 2025.
Overall, across our 29 countries and 2 regions (not counting the global aggregate but including both the Euro-zone figures as well as the 8 individual countries), 21 were above the 50 threshold indicating an expansion in activity in their manufacturing sector, 2 (Czechia and Spain) were exactly on that mark and the remaining 8 were below 50.
The strongest reading globally was India (56.9) which regained top spot this month; the weakest reading was Romania (45.3). Compared to January, the largest improvement was in Taiwan (+3.5 points), with Romania (-2.8 points) making it a double by having the largest fall as well as the lowest overall reading.
The individual S&P Global PMI reports are available to download on their web-site at https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases but we also have a summary charts report which is available to download below. You should note that the PMI readings for Hungary, Sweden and Switzerland are not compiled by S&P Global but can be found with an appropriate internet search (it also means that they are not part of the global PMI calculation).