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Economic News

European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator and Industrial Investment Survey, November 2021:  The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for six sectors of the economy and then uses five of these (financial services is not included in the ESI) to compile its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI).  Because of the data collection periods, the reference month (November) is that of publication but the data really refers to the previous month (...

When goods are traded, they are described using customs codes. At the high level, these use the Harmonised System (HS) which covers the first six digits of the code;  most countries of the world use this system which is run by the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, November 2021:  The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) results show the balance for total order books at the strongest ever level (this question has been running since April 1977) and export order books also improved although in this case it was only the strongest since March 2019.  The data collection period was from 26th October to 12th November so the trends really refer to October rather than the publishing month of November.

USMTO and CTMR, September 2021:  The US Manufacturing Technology Orders (USMTO) programme tracks orders in the US market, based on the reports from participants.  In the first three-quarters of this year, orders were +53% higher than in the same period in 2020 (January to September) at $4.1 billion.  With September seeing the highest single month since the exceptional figure recorded in September 2018 at the time of the last IMTS exhibition, this is continuing the very strong

European Industrial Production, September 2021:  Following on from the UK manufacturing output data that we reported last week, Eurostat has published the equivalent data for Europe.  It is worth noting, however, that the top level figures are for industrial production which is dominated by manufacturing but also includes energy production;  also, the Eurostat data in their “euro-indicators” publication is only monthly.

UK Foreign Trade, 3rd Quarter 2021:  Alongside all the economic data published last week by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) was the information about foreign trade (exports/imports).

UK GDP, September and 3rd Quarter 2021:  The main data this month is the more detailed quarterly GDP figures which show the UK economy grew by +1.3% compared to the 2nd period of the year.  This was less than expected by most commentators (and less than assumed in our recent forecasts) and makes the annualized growth rate +6.6% and still leaves the economy -2.1% smaller than it was before the pandemic in Q4-2019.

UK Manufacturing Output, 3rd Quarter 2021:  The latest manufacturing output data from Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicates a marginal fall compared to August but, more importantly, output in the 3rd quarter (July to September) was -0.2% lower than in the 2nd period of the year but +4.5% higher than a year earlier.  Total manufacturing output was 97.8% of the pre-pandemic level which, on the quarterly measure, is taken to be the 4th quarter of 2019.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Report:  Members will, of course, be aware that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 7-2 to keep the UK Bank Rate unchanged at +0.1% while at the same time signaling that an upward movement was likely soon - either at their December meeting or, perhaps more likely, in February at the time of their next full report.

The Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing produced by J P Morgan using the data from IHS Markit edged up in October to 54.3 and is still, in theory at least, pointing to an expansion of activity in the sector globally.