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Economic News

USMTO and CTMR, March 2022:  The US Manufacturing Technology Orders (USMTO) programme tracks orders in the US market, based on the reports from participants.  Each of the first three months of the year have been excellent and the total for the 1st quarter as a whole is +26.5% higher than the same period in 2021 and the strongest start to any calendar year since 1998.

UK Manufacturing Output , March & 1st Quarter 2022:  The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has published data on manufacturing output for March and, therefore of course, the 1st quarter;  we will focus mainly on the quarterly series with occasional references to the latest month.  Please bear in mind that the “pre-pandemic level” is Q4-2019 for the quarterly series and February 2020 for the monthly data.

European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator, Capacity Utilisation and Investment Survey, April 2022:  The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for six sectors of the economy and then uses five of these (financial services is not used) make up its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI).  The other point to note is that although labelled as “April 2022” or “Q2-2022”, the data collection period was mainly in April so the data really refers...

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, April 2022:  The results from the latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) concluded that there has been a slowing in the rate of growth of output over the past 3 months but it remains above the long-run average level.  Output grew in 12 of the 17 industries in the ITS with the largest positive contribution coming from the transport equipment group that includes the automotive industry.

European Industrial Production, February 2022:  Figures released by Eurostat this week showed total industrial production in the Euro-zone was +0.7% higher than in January while the EU as a whole showed a rise of +0.6%.  This means that growth over the past 12 months (since February 2021) was +2.0% in the Euro-zone and +3.0% for the EU.

UK Manufacturing Output , February 2022:  The latest headline data for manufacturing output from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows a fall of -0.4% compared to January, driven mainly by a reduction of -9.4% in the automotive industry and -5.0% in the output of chemicals.  Manufacturing output in February was 99.3% of its pre-pandemic level (two years ago in February 2020).

UK National Accounts (GDP and Investment), 4th Quarter 2021:  With the publication of the quarterly National Accounts by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the estimate for economic growth in the UK economy has been revised up to +1.3% compared to the previous quarter.  This uprating is largely due to a range of revisions across the service sector.  In output terms, the largest contributions to GDP growth in Q4-21 came from the human health & social work activities with a rise in...

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, March 2022:  Before we look at the latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) it is worth noting that although it is labelled as “March”, the data collection period ran from 24th February to 14th March.  This means that although it is one of the first surveys to have been collected entirely in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the data is really about February or the 3 months ending in February, so entirely before the s

Bank of England’s Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions - Q1-2022:  In conjunction with the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPS) this week, at which they voted 8-1 to increase the Bank Rate to 0.75%, the Bank of England has published the latest summary of business conditions collected by their Agents around the country.  This round covers intelligence that was gathered by the Bank’s Agents mostly between mid-January and late February - before the invasion of Ukraine.

UK Manufacturing Output , January 2022:  The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the latest output data this morning and the headline shows an increase of +0.8% in total manufacturing output compared to December 2021.  However, this still leaves output of the sector -1.6% lower than its pre-pandemic level (February 2020).  The monthly data can be volatile and so we prefer to use the rolling 3-month trend and this shows manufacturing output in the latest 3 months (November and...

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